This Is Nowhere

And everybody knows

A little late this morning. Dealing with some data issues, so will keep this post simple.

The VIX Mix was essentially unchanged yesterday after a bullish run in the afternoon based on some Netanyahu remarks. Still no sign of any bullishness in the components underlying our composite gauge.

46 days and counting since the last green bar. And if you think about it, getting from red to green is at least a week away in the best of circumstances. But it seems remote that we’ll see “best of” given what’s happening with oil and other critical commodities.

We spend a lot of time looking for clues from the VIX futures term structure. One of the simplest views is the relationship of VX30 to VIX. For readers new to Vixology, VX30 is a measure of constant maturity VIX futures calculated to match the 30-day forward look of spot VIX. Above zero is supportive of a bullish view on equities and vice versa. The chart is hugging zero at the right edge. Up from the recent low, but could still suffer a relapse.

The Middle East conflict refuses to conclude. Markets are being jerked around by headlines and media snippets. We’re not crashing and we’re not recovering. Makes it kinda frustrating. In the words of my dear old pal, Neil Young, “I gotta get away from this day-to-day running around, everybody knows this is nowhere.”

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